It’s finally here: on Tuesday, millions of Americans will head to the polls to register their choices about the nation’s 47th President, the U.S. House, a third of the Senate, state and local offices, and scores of ballot initiatives.
An election that’s felt like it would never end officially wraps up at 1am Eastern time Wednesday morning when the last polls close in Alaska. But it may take days or even weeks for the results to be confirmed as states tally absentee ballots, courts adjudicate legal challenges, and recounts take place. And as 2020 showed, when candidates refuse to accept the results of a free and fair election, discord and even violence can result.
People are understandably worried about what the next few weeks may bring, especially if the results in the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are razor-thin. The tension is exacerbated by a flood of misinformation on social media.
So herewith are a few points to keep in mind over the coming week(s).
We Might Not Know the Results on Election Night – And That’s OK.
Gone are the days when the TV networks could announce the projected winner on Tuesday evening. It may be days before the result is known. Partly that’s due to how close the race is in the swing states, not to mention the media’s reticence about naming victors too early (see Florida, 2000).
But it’s also influenced by the fact many ballots won’t be counted right away. As of this past weekend, nearly 70 million voters had requested absentee ballots; that’s nearly half the number of total votes in 2020. Many states, including some battlegrounds, prohibit election boards from opening and counting absentee ballots until Election Day, or even after polls close. This means that the totals publicized Tuesday night include only early voters and those who went to the polls on November 5.
But that does not mean that people get to vote after Election Day. While some states accept absentee ballots that arrive in the mail after the polls close, those ballots must be postmarked by Election Day.
Of course, even once the media projects a winner, and even if one candidate (or both) declare victory, that’s not the final word. Each state has until December 11 to certify the winner. Six days later, the electors for each state’s winning candidate meet at state capitols to award electoral votes, which then are transmitted to Congress for the official certification on January 6. In essence, the winner will not be “official” until well after Election Day.
We Also Might Not Know Who Will Control Congress Right Away.
This year, both chambers of Congress are up for grabs: Democrats hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, while Republicans maintain a slim majority in the House. It is possible that one or both chambers could see a change in partisan control come January.
But as with the presidential race, if there are tight races, we might not know who will be in charge for a little while. (That’s especially true in the House, where there are 30-40 seats that could see extremely close results.)
There Will Likely be Court Challenges.
In 2020, the Trump campaign filed upwards of 60 federal and state-level lawsuits challenging the election results, the processes states used to tabulate results, and more. Virtually all of them were unsuccessful.
While the number of cases brought was high, it is not unusual for campaigns to bring lawsuits when they are close but behind in the vote tallies (in 2000, for instance, both Democrats and Republicans filed suits over the Florida recount).
Going to court is perfectly constitutional – as long as the losing campaign accepts the results. But should the race be extremely close, there’s a good chance the campaigns will unleash the attorneys. That said, by the time December 11 rolls around, all cases should be resolved and the final winner clear.
It is Unlikely – But Not Impossible – That the House Will Select the Next President
Under the Constitution, if no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, then the House decides who the next President will be (and the Senate picks the VP). The vote in the House is by state delegation, and since Republicans are likely to hold a majority of states in the House, former President Trump would prevail.
That outcome is extremely unlikely, for a few reasons.
For one thing, there are only a handful of scenarios in which no candidate would get the required 270 electoral votes. One is when a third-party candidate wins one or more states, and therefore no candidate therefore reaches 270. If the polls and recent history are to be believed, no third-party candidate this year is in spitting distance of winning any state.
There also could be a 269-269 electoral college tie. While not impossible, it would take a very specific set of state-by-state results for Harris and Trump to end up tied. (BTW, if you want to play with the electoral map and devise various scenarios, there’s a website for that.)
Some Democrats fret that Harris could win, but Republicans could reject the results and throw the election to the House, giving the White House to Trump. To be clear, that is what the former President and his allies tried in 2020, either by getting Republican governors of states that voted Democratic to “find” additional votes, gathering alternative slates of electors, raising objections during the January 6 certification process, and ultimately pressuring former Vice President Pence to reject Biden’s electoral votes.
None of those gambits worked in 2020, and they are even less likely to work in 2024, because of reforms Congress enacted in 2022 to clarify the process.
One additional wrinkle: win or lose, Harris will preside over the January 6 certification as the sitting vice president. If Trump wins, would she pull any shenanigans to block her opponent? It appears unlikely, since maneuvering to get the election thrown to the House doesn’t help her. And in any event, 2020 showed that such schemes simply don’t work.
January 6 is Unlikely to Be A Repeat of 2021
The biggest crisis on January 6, 2021, wasn’t the parliamentary machinations inside the House chamber; it was the violent attack from outside that left 140 police officers injured and led to hundreds of convictions.
That is unlikely to repeat. There will be massive security around the U.S. Capitol. In addition, local and federal law enforcement authorities will be looking for any signs of trouble, in person or online.
Sadly, the potential for violence remains. Don’t forget that former President Trump was the target of not one but two failed assassination attempts this summer. Political violence has a long and tragic history in this country. But the scenes we witnessed on Capitol Hill four years ago are not likely to repeat.
Feeling Anxious or Helpless? Vote
No matter which side you’re on (and even if you’re on no side at all), this election has frayed a lot of nerves. Remember you can do something about it. Volunteer for political campaigns. Take part in local programs that improve your community. Express your views in your local newspaper.
Most importantly, make a plan to vote if you haven’t already. If you have questions about voting, visit www.vote.gov.
ACRA does not, and will never, endorse candidates for any office. But we strongly encourage you to exercise your right to help select our next leaders.
Once the election is over, look to ACRASphere for analysis of how the results will impact CRM. In the meantime, vote.