Congress returned to Washington last week from its Easter recess with a big to-do list. But increasingly, the capital’s attention is turning towards November’s election, which has the potential to shake up the status quo in DC.
With the possibility of at least one chamber of Congress changing hands in November, let’s take a look at the 2026 race, what it could mean for policymaking in the final two years of the Trump administration, and what all of that may portend for CRM.
The House
With Republicans holding a razor-thin majority in the House the possibility of a shift in power looms large.
History is not on their side: four of the last five Presidents saw their party lose the majority in the House right after their inauguration. Donald Trump himself watched Democrats win back the House in 2018, two years into his first term. Will history repeat?
One possible indicator is that nearly twice as many Republican House members have announced their retirements than Democrats. Similar situations happened in 2018, when the GOP lost the majority, and in 2022, when an exodus of Democrats retired before the party lost its hold on the House.
Why are retirements a key indicator? Two reasons: first, lawmakers who enjoy significant power while in the majority dread the possibility of losing it. Second, with the President’s poll numbers sagging, some Republican members fear they could lose if they run for re-election, preferring to leave on their own terms.
Some may ask whether the furious spate of mid-cycle redistricting will impact the election. To date, four states (Texas, California, Missouri and North Carolina) have changed their maps, while two others (Virginia and Florida) are potential changers.
Based on voting patterns and district makeups, all this redistricting could result in anything from a net Republican gain of three seats to a complete wash. That’s not the outcome that President Trump hoped for when he first demanded red states redistrict. While it may blunt what are expected to be GOP losses in the House, history and the number of Republicans leaving the job suggest a good chance that Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will be the next Speaker of the House.
Senate
Things look different in the Senate, where Republicans currently enjoy a 53-47 majority. Although Republicans have more seats up this election (22) than Democrats (14), many of those Republican seats are in reliably red states.
Most political prognosticators list four Senate seats as being the most competitive. Republicans are defending an open seat in North Carolina, where popular former governor Roy Cooper is the Democratic nominee; and Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) will face the winner of a Democratic primary. Democrats, meanwhile, are most worried about an open seat in Michigan, which has seesawed between the parties in recent presidential races, and Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) faces a crowded GOP primary field.
Democrats would need to win virtually every competitive Senate race in the country to pick up the four seats they’d need to secure a Senate majority. Things can change, but the odds favor Republicans keeping their hold on the Senate.
What It All Means
If Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress, the implications for the last two years of the Trump administration are sizable, but not necessarily earth-shattering.
In the majority, Democrats could control what bills come up for a vote, and which don’t. They can haul administration officials before committees for tough questioning. And should Democrats win the Senate, they will have the ability to block Trump appointees and judicial nominations.
But Democratic control of one or even both chambers does not mean Democrats would get their way. President Trump will still wield his presidential veto; and unless Democrats do away with the Senate filibuster, they would need to gain Republican support to advance legislation in the upper chamber.
Another reason that divided government won’t mean major change is that the current White House likes to do what it wants with or without the legislative branch’s assent. From impounding appropriated funding to shuttering agencies to launching military operations against Iran, President Trump rarely looks for Capitol Hill’s blessing. While a Democratic Congress may push back more forcefully on administration policy it opposes, it will likely remain up to the courts to police the separation of powers.
Divided government can lead to one of two outcomes: if the parties dig in their heels, the gridlock we see even in a Republican-controlled Washington will get worse. But if the parties negotiate and find middle ground, a lot could get accomplished. At a time when President Trump and congressional Democrats appear to loathe one another, it may seem impossible for the two sides to work together. But political memories are short. And the desire to leave a legacy could force them to play nice.
The Outlook for CRM
What this means for the CRM industry is, of course, not entirely clear.
On certain issues, like permitting, there already is broad bipartisan support for making reforms, particularly to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). However, Democrats have shown less interest in changes to Section 106. While House Republicans have advanced several bills exempting certain projects from Section 106, most Democrats oppose them. Similarly, while Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chair Mike Lee (R-UT) has expressed interest in reforming NHPA, Democrats have shown less urgency.
On budgetary matters, including funds for preservation, a power shift might not make a big difference, seeing as even Republicans in Congress have rejected many of the President’s proposed cuts to the Interior Department.
For small businesses, a divided government reduces the chances of any major tax legislation that changes tax rates, business deductions, or pass-through rules. While some Democrats may want to reverse some of the tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, those would be dead on arrival at the White House.
Ultimately, the main difference between a Republican Congress and one where Democrats hold sway would be in tone and rhetoric. Democrats would hold hearings highlighting the effects of Trump administration actions, from their energy emergency Executive Order and NEPA reforms to workforce reductions and White House ballroom plans. That might not change the actual policy, but it will help sharpen distinctions between the parties for the next Presidential election, which Is only two years away.
Regardless of who prevails in the November midterm election, ACRA will keep advocating for the CRM industry. To find out how you can get involved in speaking up for CRM, contact us at info@acra-crm.org.