Following Tuesday’s elections, Donald J. Trump will return to the White House as only the second U.S. President to win nonconsecutive terms.
In a stunning win for the GOP, Republicans also picked up enough seats to take control of the Senate, while unresolved races mean control of the House is still not known.
What does Trump’s election mean for CRM over the next four years? It’s still too early to say with complete certainty what the election results will bring, but here are a few educated guesses based on Trump’s previous stint in the White House and what he and his allies said during the campaign.
Environmental and Historic Preservation Reviews
In 2020, Trump instituted changes to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) that exempted classes of federal actions from NEPA review and restricted the types of project effects to be examined during the NEPA review process. Almost immediately upon taking office, President Biden undid the Trump changes and added new provisions to ensure that the impacts of proposed projects on historic and cultural resources are considered. It is likely that a second Trump administration will see a return to his 2020 NEPA reforms.
It is also likely that a second Trump Interior Department will reinstitute plans announced at the very end of Trump’s term, known as Secretarial Order 3389, Coordinating and Clarifying National Historic Preservation Act Section 106 Reviews, that establish time limits on Section 106 reviews and discourage alternative mitigation measures as a tool to balance preservation and development needs. ACRA strongly opposed these changes at the time and would do so again should they be revived.
Beyond these specific changes, there is a good chance Congress will take another stab at a broad permitting reform bill. Republicans support reforming the NEPA and Section 106 processes to accelerate a wide range of infrastructure projects, most notably traditional energy production like oil and gas, while exempting certain categories of projects from review altogether.
If Republicans manage to maintain control of the House, expect attempts to pass a far-reaching bill to exempt more projects from environmental and historic reviews and shorten the process timeline. Although ACRA does not expect any serious efforts to repeal Section 106 entirely, we continue to work with our preservation partners to educate policymakers in both parties on the importance of the process.
Historic Preservation and Cultural Resources Funding
Thanks to the advocacy of ACRA and its preservation partners, federal investments in historic preservation, including through the Historic Preservation Fund (HPF), have risen in recent years. In fact, HPF funding rose from approximately $80 million per year to almost $120 million during Trump’s first term, a trend that for the most part continued under Biden.
However, rising federal deficits could impact funding in the future. As candidate, Trump vowed to put Elon Musk in charge of cutting federal spending. Musk said he could cut $2 trillion from the federal budget, which would require deep cuts to hundreds of programs.
Furthermore, Trump has suggested clawing back unspent monies from the 2022 Biden Inflation Reduction Act (IRA); if this happens, the pace of infrastructure projects could slow down as the money is rescinded. That said, a number of Republicans are urging Trump to maintain funding for such projects, including billions approved as part of the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, because of the benefits they bring to their communities.
Tax and Business Policy
Tax policy will be one of the first items on Congress’ to-do list in 2025, when the tax cuts that Trump signed into law in 2017 expire. The 2017 bill lowered the corporate tax rate from 28% to 21% and created a special deduction for the owners of certain pass-through entities who pay business taxes on their individual tax returns.
Not surprisingly, Trump will want to maintain, and even make permanent, the 2017 tax cuts, if not make them more generous. During the campaign, Trump told a group of business executives that he would like to cut the corporate rate even lower than he did the first time, to 20%.
On other business matters, such as workplace regulations, expect a new Trump administration to roll back or nix Biden administration regulations that businesses have said would be too onerous. One such example is a proposal OSHA unveiled last summer to create the first-ever federal rules regarding workplace heat. Considering the number of CRM personnel who work outdoors, ACRA had been reviewing the proposal carefully to assess its potential impact. Now, it is likely the rules will be shelved, at least for the next four years.
Agencies and Personnel
Perhaps some of the biggest changes in store under a second Trump term will be in federal personnel.
At the end of his first term, Trump instituted a plan known as “Schedule F,” which would have turned a large number of civil servant positions into political positions that could easily be hired and fired by the president. Biden rescinded Schedule F as soon as he came to office, but Trump is likely to reinstate it. This would mean that many nonpartisan civil servants who administer laws and programs could be replaced by political appointees committed to executing Trump’s agenda.
In addition, Biden administration pollical appointees will need to leave their posts by Inauguration Day. That includes the current Interior Secretary, Deb Haaland, and the Chair of the ACHP, Sara Bronin. Who will replace them is not yet known.
Bottom Line
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will portend big changes in federal policymaking that affect cultural resources. Should Republicans maintain control of the House, they will have unified control of the federal policymaking apparatus.
But majorities are tenuous. Each of the last five presidents entered office with their party controlling Congress; four of the five saw their party lose at least one chamber of Congress in the midterm election two years later (the exception was former President George W. Bush, who saw his party gain seats in the midterm in the wake of 9/11; the GOP eventually lost control of Congress later in his term.)
That means that Republicans will try to work quickly to lock in their preferred policy changes, knowing their hold on power could be short-lived. (Of course, if Democrats manage to win control of the House this year, the parties will need to find a way to work together.)
Regardless of the election outcome, ACRA continues to advocate to both parties for the interests of the CRM industry. In a time of rapid change in Washington, it is as important as ever that policymakers understand and recognize the value of cultural resources management and the Section 106 process.
That means that ACRA needs your voice to help make the case to your elected representatives on why CRM matters. To get involved, please email us at info@acra-crm.org.