Acrid smoke from Canadian wildfires isn’t the only thing making the outlook in Washington hazy these days. As both parties contend with low approval ratings and the specter of a 2024 rematch between the 45th and 46th Presidents next year, Congress headed into its traditional Fourth of July recess with no clarity on what the next few months will bring.

While Democrats who control the White House and (by a very slim margin) the Senate hope to advance bipartisan legislation on a range of issues, House Republicans are contending with tensions between their moderate and far-right wings, which could lead to gridlock and the potential for a government shutdown this fall.

Although nothing is certain, here are some of the major issues that impact CRM, and how they may play out over the rest of the summer and early fall.

Permitting Reform. Advocates of quickening the federal permitting process won a small victory when permitting reform provisions were included in the legislation to avoid a debt ceiling in the late spring. Most notably, the provisions require that Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) are due within two years after—and Environmental Assessments (EAs) within one year after—the sooner of the date the agency determines the EIS or EA is required; the date the agency notifies the application that the application to establish a right-of-way is complete; or the date the agency issues a notice of intent to prepare the EIS or EA.  While this may have an impact on the timeline for starting and completing both NEPA and Section 106 consultations, the changes are a far cry from proposals to exclude whole categories of projects from NEPA and NHPA reviews.

That said, proponents of such broader changes, including plans to codify the Trump Administration NEPA reforms into law, which have been a priority for Republicans and some Democrats, are still on the table for the fall. Meanwhile, Democrats hope to advance reforms to make it easier to get renewable energy projects off the ground. It’s not clear if the bipartisan interest in further reforms will ease the way towards passage, or whether the inclusion of permitting reform provisions in the debt ceiling bill has sapped motivation to re-enter the fray over permitting. Either way, ACRA and its allies continue to educate policymakers on the importance of Section 106.

Preservation Funding. The debt ceiling deal set overall appropriations amounts for the next two fiscal years – which should have made the funding process much easier this summer. But a revolt by arch-conservative Freedom Caucus members in the House prompted House Republicans to move ahead with much sharper cuts to funding for the fiscal year that starts October 1.

The House Appropriations Committee is expected to release its first draft of the fiscal year 2024 funding bill for the Interior Department when Congress returns from its recess next week. It is likely that preservation and conservation programs at the National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, and other agencies – including the Historic Preservation Fund (HPF) – will see sizable reductions in spending in that draft. However, the Senate is still planning to hold to the spending levels agreed to in the debt ceiling deal. But if the Freedom Caucus holds firms on their preferred funding levels, as appears to be the case, the chances of a government shutdown come this fall increase.

ACRA and its allies continue to push for adequate funding for the HPF and urge Congress not to shut the government down. But (to use a common DC cliché), only time will tell how the funding battle plays out.

Extending and Expanding the Preservation Fund. Speaking of the HPF, the clock is ticking towards the date – October 1 – when the Fund’s statutory authorization expires. The Fund, which has been in existence since the 1970s, has been instrumental in supporting the work of state and Tribal historic preservation offices and other preservation grant programs. ACRA and its allies in the preservation community have been working with Reps. Michael Turner (R-OH) and Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) to advance their legislation, H.R. 3350, which would extend the HPF for 10 years and increase its annual authorized amount from $150 million to $250 million.

Last week, ACRA and more than 30 preservation organizations wrote to Congress urging them to enact the bill before the Fund expires. There is significant bipartisan support for preservation, but in a hazy political environment, preservation advocates can’t take anything for granted.